More production, more contracts and more oversight: why this year is likely to be decisive for the oil and gas sector
The start of 2026 finds the Brazilian oil and gas sector facing a significant convergence of factors: the expansion of offshore production, the maturing of the new regulatory framework for natural gas and an intense cycle of infrastructure contracting associated with FPSOs, gas pipelines and integrated flow systems. It is an environment of opportunities, but also of high legal complexity, especially for long-term contracts and for tenders involving Petrobras and its partners.
This movement is driven, among other factors, by the start-up of new production assets, such as the P-78 FPSO in the Búzios field, whose first oil was announced just recently, in early January 2026.
At the same time, plans to expand gas flow infrastructure are moving forward, with public announcements of future tenders for pipelines associated with offshore projects, such as the projects planned for the Sergipe-Alagoas Basin.
Unlike previous cycles, the legal challenges for 2026 do not stem from a lack of rules, but from the need to put into practice — in contracts, tender notices and administrative decisions — a regulatory framework that is already dense and being consolidated under the supervision of the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP), especially in the context of what is still called the New Gas Law, published in 2021.
So what are these challenges? We can anticipate a few.
FPSOs and increasingly sophisticated contract models
The consolidation of FPSOs as the main production solution in deep waters reinforces the central role of these assets on the sector’s legal agenda. Charter contracts with operation (charter + O&M), BOT structures and EPCIC arrangements continue to coexist, but with increasingly sophisticated risk allocation clauses.
For 2026, there is a clear trend toward strengthening clauses related to performance and operational availability, with objective metrics, penalty triggers and incentive mechanisms. Force majeure and hardship clauses are also gaining prominence, revised in light of extreme weather events and environmental conditions capable of significantly affecting schedules and costs.
Another relevant factor is the incorporation of obligations related to operational efficiency, environmental targets and capital discipline directly into the economic core of contracts. This logic is aligned with the strategic guidelines published by Petrobras itself for the 2026-2030 cycle, which is likely to be increasingly reflected in the company’s tender notices and draft contracts.
Gas pipelines, logistics and regulatory risk in focus
Increased offshore natural gas production shifts the legal focus to transportation, flow and associated logistics infrastructure. Offshore and onshore gas pipelines, processing units and logistics assets now concentrate significant regulatory risks.
In this context, the gradual implementation of the New Gas Law highlights three main categories of regulatory risk that are gaining weight in the risk matrices of infrastructure contracts: (i) access and capacity allocation risk; (ii) tariff risk, given methodologies still being consolidated by the ANP; and (iii) the risk of supervening regulatory intervention.
From 2026 onwards, an additional element is added to these risks: more intense regulatory oversight. The ANP has approved its annual oversight plan for 2026, providing for more inspections, audits and preventive actions in upstream and midstream activities. This reinforces the need for specific contract clauses on regulatory compliance, reporting duties and protocols for responding to inspections.
At the same time, recent investments in maritime logistics – such as the contracting of new vessels to transport gas and oil products announced in early 2026 – increase the legal relevance of shipbuilding, financing, performance guarantee and local content contracts, connecting upstream, midstream and downstream in a single contractual chain.
Negotiated access and contracts in a hybrid zone
Another sensitive issue for 2026 is the expansion of negotiated access agreements to existing infrastructure, especially integrated gas flow and processing systems. Examples are the access agreements entered into between Petrobras and other operators, officially announced by the company.
These instruments operate in a hybrid zone between private law and sector regulation, requiring extra attention to principles such as transparency, equal treatment and non-discrimination. The legal challenge is not limited to contract drafting, but involves compatibility with the regulatory regime and with potential scrutiny by the ANP, including from an antitrust perspective.
Environmental licensing and institutional coordination
On the environmental front, offshore projects remain subject to complex federal licensing processes, with direct impacts on schedules and contractual obligations. In 2026, the contractual coordination between environmental licenses, regulatory authorizations and performance milestones becomes even more important in order to reduce the risk of stoppages and disputes.
Coordination (not always linear) between environmental agencies, the sector regulator and maritime authorities is becoming an autonomous legal risk that must be explicitly addressed in risk matrices and contract governance mechanisms.
Less legislative innovation, more legal engineering
If previous years were marked by intense regulatory debates, 2026 is likely to be the year of implementation. The success of offshore infrastructure and natural gas projects will depend less on enacting new laws and more on the ability of market players to translate existing rules into well-structured contracts, realistic risk matrices and effective governance mechanisms.
For lawyers, public managers and companies in the sector, the central challenge will be to balance legal predictability and regulatory flexibility in long-term, capital-intensive projects. It is in this space – between the contract and the regulator, between investment and risk – that the pace of the oil and gas sector in 2026 will be defined.
